Red Light, Green Light Holdem Strategy

I was playing in a Texas Hold’em tournament online the other day and, as seems to happen all too often with me, found myself with a short stack on the bubble. With about 4,000 chips and blinds at 200/400, I was looking for a hand that I could ride to showdown or even just push with pre-flop. In the cutoff, I found one that I thought would do just fine: A-J offsuit. I almost shoved, but instead only raised to 1,200. Unfortunately, the gorilla stack at the table – a player with a chip stack north of 70,000 – was on the button and re-raised me to 2,400. It seemed like a bullying move to me. If I thought he really had something, I might have folded to give myself one last shot at going all-in within the next few hands. But given my read, after the blinds folded, I pushed, the gorilla called with 5-8 suited, and I was eliminated when he spiked a 5 on the turn.

That got me to thinking. Could I have played that hand differently and given myself a better chance to win? I don’t mean just survive by folding, but actually give myself a shot to win the hand? Upon further review, the answer is yes.

What I should have done was perform a stop-and-go. A stop-and-go in Texas Hold’em is a play where you call a raise when out of position with the intention of betting on the flop, regardless of what cards fall. In the instance above, this would have been a smarter play. Given my raise and the gorilla’s re-raise, I should have only called, rather than go all-in. Then, since I would have been first to act on the flop, I would have pushed. You may think that this would achieve the exact same result as pushing pre-flop, and it may have, but it is still a better move.

As the hand went down, it was an easy call for the gorilla to make when I risked all my chips pre-flop. He only had about 1,600 more to call and there were already 4,200 chips in the pot. As I couldn’t be too picky about a hand at that point, there was a good chance that he had two live cards, which he did. Plus, he had so many chips that he could afford to lose the hand.

But what if I went with the stop-and-go? What might have happened? Of course, one possibility is that I insta-push the flop, no matter what it looked like, and gorilla calls even if he has nothing, on the off-chance that he gets lucky on the turn or river (which, as it turned out, he would have). Many players would assume that this is what would happen. After all, just like on the flop, the extra few chips are just a drop in the bucket for the big stack. So, if this is how the scenario would have played out, it is a wash.

Fortunately, that’s not the only thing that could reasonably happen, though. Remember, the gorilla only has about a one in three chance to pair one of his hole cards on the flop. There is a better chance that he whiffs completely than there is of him hitting something.

Let’s say the gorilla is a decent player and puts me on two high cards. What if the flop comes K-Q-2? His only real chance to win the hand from that point is if I have A-T or A-J, but even with two live cards, he now only has about 19 percent equity in the hand. He’s all but dead if I have a King or Queen. Assuming he makes reasonable decisions, there is a good chance that he folds in this situation. I mean, even though the chips are minimal compared to his stack, why should he donate anything to me when he figures he barely has a shot to win? And just like that, I almost double-up.

If the flop is a bit less scary for the gorilla, maybe something like Q-9-4, he might decide that it’s worth the risk to call my all-in, but hey, I would still be a solid favorite to win, more so than I would have been pre-flop, as now my opponent only gets to see two more cards.

Keep in mind that in order for this move to have a chance to work, you must be out of position and you must be willing to take the hand to showdown, no matter what. By being out of position, you act first after the flop. If your opponent acts first, it’s a stone cold lock that he will put you all-in. If you act first, you give him a chance to fold. As for choosing a hand that you can commit to all the way through the river, well, this all-in version of the stop-and-go wouldn’t make sense if you were just going to fold after the flop. You are mentally going all-in pre-flop; you just split the chips up over two betting rounds.

The bottom line is this: in a Hold’em game by running the stop-and-go rather than just shoving before the flop, you reduce the odds that you will get called, even if it’s only by a little bit. Of course, if you have a monster hand like Aces or Kings, by all means, put it all-in pre-flop. You want to get called. But with strong, but not monster hands, the stop-and-go can be a wise move. It may be a little embarrassing if you completely miss the flop, push, get called by a better hand, and then everybody sees that you were bluffing; while in reality the outcome would have been the same if you would have gone all-in pre-flop. Same five community cards, same hole cards, same result. But by waiting to shove, you add a positive outcome, a fold by the gorilla, to the possibilities. If you can increase your chances to win, you might as well try something new.

And hey, you might end up with the best hand, anyway.

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