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Re-Stealing with Fold Equity
Fold equity is a term used in poker tournaments that pertains to a player’s ability to get his opponent to fold their hand. It is especially important for a short-stacked player to understand the concept as it can help create the easiest way to chip up without having to show a hand down.
Short stacks that have between 12-15 big blinds are in a prime re-stealing position. A re-steal occurs when a player re-raises an opponent that could very well be raising solely to steal the blinds. Normally you’ll find hyper-aggressive players looking to pick up the blinds in late position, so re-stealing is often done by players in the small blind and big blind. And they’ll need to have enough fold equity to make it a profitable play.
The mathematical interpretation of fold equity is quite simple: it is the probability that the opponent folds multiplied by the gain in equity if the opponent folds.
Determining the first half of the equation is very complex and will have to take into account some history played with the enemy. A major mistake many players make is re-raising a tight player that has only been opening with big hands. You have to pick your spots wisely and for the most part against aggressive players that raise in middle-to-late position in order to make the play successful.
Another important factor is making sure you’re raising enough that the opponent can fold without getting the correct odds. The rule is this: If you’re re-stealing with a marginal hand and would like your opponent to fold then look at the pot odds you are offering them to call.
For example, let’s say we have 15,000 chips with the blinds at 500/1,000. Action folds around to the aggressive big stack on the button, and he raises to 2,500. The small blind folds and we’re in the big blind with jack-ten suited. It is imperative to be able to put your opponent on a range in this spot, and given the history we have with him we’re going to assume he’s opening the pot with a very wide range.
By moving all in we’re increasing the pot to 18,000. Our opponent needs 12,500 more to make the call, giving him 1.44-1 odds. For him to make a profitable call he needs to win almost 40% of the time. This is a very good position to re-steal, because given our opponent’s range, his hand probably doesn’t play favorably against our re-stealing range. Our opponent folds and we increase our stack by 20 percent.
Now, let’s say we begin the hand with 8,000 chips. By re-raising all-in the pot is 11,000 and our opponent needs only 5,500 to make the call. He is getting 2-1 odds and needs only 33% equity against our range to make a call profitable. It is highly doubtful our opponent will ever fold in this specific situation, making our move with jack-ten suited very suspect.
Some opponents are more likely to call a re-steal than others. A weak, tight player is far less likely to call a re-raise than a wild maniac. These are things to consider while playing at a table. Making notes on players is always advisable to make decisions easier.
A re-steal with fold equity is one of the more popular tactics used among top tournament professionals, especially when they’re not seeing any cards. But a crucial thing to remember is not to fall too much in love with it, as your opponents will pick up on your strategy and loosen their calling range accordingly.
