Holdem Bonuses
Article
Limit Holdem - Its not always a bad beat
Any poker player who has played for some time has found themselves in the exact position that I am about to explain. You’re sitting there with your pocket Aces at a limit table and, for some reason, you just can’t shake the player across from you out of the hand. You bet on an innocuous flop and he raises…you pop them back with a three bet and they cap. The turn and/or river brings what you believe to be an innocent card or cards and, after the smoke has cleared, your opponent turns over two pair, a straight or a flush to blast your rockets out of the water. Another player at the table says, “Wow, that was a bad beat.”
The problem with that statement is that it isn’t necessarily a bad beat. As I will explain, sometimes the logic and mathematics are there for players to pursue a hand and crack your big pairs. That logic and mathematics will escape players that perhaps haven’t played as long and, thus, the lament of “bad beat” gets misused.
First, let’s start with the mathematics. While a big pocket pair (in this instance, let’s use Aces through Queens) is slightly better than a 4-1 favorite over a nominal hand such as 8-7 unsuited preflop, if the board texture comes down in favor of the 8-7 (for example, 9-6-x,) the odds quickly close to where the Aces are now only a 2-1 favorite with two cards to come. Therefore, the player holding the 8-7 is more likely to pursue the draw with eight outs for the straight as well as the remote possibility that he may hit runner-runner eights or sevens (or a combination thereof and an incredibly dangerous situation for him, in that case) to his hand.
Let’s use that same scenario as above, only make the 8-7 suited (hearts, in this case.) Now the big pocket pair is slightly more than a 3-1 favorite and, if the flop comes with two hearts (say 9h-6-2h,) the 8h-7h has suddenly rocketed into a 56-43 lead. With straight and flush draws aplenty, no player is going to muck this hand; they are going to bet it aggressively, even if you do have that big pocket pair to back your bet.
Now let’s look at two pair or trips possibilities. With the same situation as above except the flop comes J-8-4, the lesser hand has improved, but only slightly (to just under 4-1.) While the player only has five outs to the better hand, some lesser skilled players will come along for that chance. If it does hit, then the lesser hand gets a stranglehold on the pot (if they hit another eight, the Aces are now a 9.5-1 dog; if they hit their seven, the Aces are down around 4-1) and, barring another suckout, will more than likely win the hand.
One of the drawbacks of Limit poker is that, for most purposes, you cannot bet a player out of a hand. There will be more people that see flops, whether live or online, and they will be willing to come along with you due to the pot odds. Using the same examples we have above, let’s add some action. Preflop at a $2/$4 table, you raised from middle position with your pocket Aces and only the cutoff calls. There is now $11 in the pot.
The same flop we’ve been using (9-6-2) comes on the board. You put in a $2 bet and your opponent studies for a bit. He is getting 5.5-1 on his money if he just calls and, in two of the situations that are presented above, he is getting great pot odds to come along for the ride (in the third where he pairs his top card, he‘s still down but getting a slight edge on the pot odds.) Let’s say he calls your bet on the flop (he actually should raise, but that’s a story for another time.) If he misses on the turn this is where he has to make a decision.
With the suited 8-7 and straight and flush draws, he is still only a 2-1 dog in this situation and, if you pop a $4 bet on the turn and there’s now $19 in the pot, he is getting almost 4-1 on his money. If he’s running the numbers in his head, he should logically make the call. However, with the unsuited 8-7, he’s now down to that 4-1 odds on winning the pot and has to make the decision as to whether he wants to pay off for that last possibility on the river. If he’s paired his top card, he’s almost a 9-1 dog and is not getting the correct odds on a call, but this doesn’t stop some players from gambling it up.
As always with poker, the more players that are in the hand, the better chance that you will get run down by a lesser hand. This is why you still need to raise with those big pocket pairs… to limit the likelihood of this happening. If you find yourself in the position that I have examined above, instead of lamenting about your nonexistent “bad beat,” just shrug your shoulders, say, “nice hand,” and move on to the next one. The odds will eventually turn around into your favor.
